Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 221.729382 271.106380 332.853485 417.259168 532.095193 6.866890e+02 9.174905e+02
2025-05-25 160.713839 214.433879 290.296198 409.914251 603.388087 9.237656e+02 1.545163e+03
2025-06-01 126.869343 179.024402 258.820245 397.798936 653.455323 1.153822e+03 2.382879e+03
2025-06-08 105.064647 154.370158 234.388690 384.786976 691.656296 1.385239e+03 3.519230e+03
2025-06-15 97.538393 149.651974 239.844788 424.616104 850.965918 2.008398e+03 6.927893e+03
2025-06-22 86.995299 137.539160 229.066252 428.702240 934.639393 2.530421e+03 1.171432e+04
2025-06-29 79.860917 129.893929 224.515569 444.058368 1056.671258 3.334768e+03 2.261640e+04
2025-07-06 72.121345 119.790817 212.915332 439.453984 1121.826970 4.039328e+03 4.033665e+04
2025-07-13 69.675769 119.136810 220.254389 483.545441 1372.792156 6.137054e+03 1.371484e+05
2025-07-20 66.930404 117.400404 224.845248 522.610890 1645.332229 9.287908e+03 7.496696e+05
2025-07-27 63.782746 114.336569 225.781734 552.138513 1914.559171 1.376714e+04 1.434943e+07
2025-08-03 60.347810 110.163741 223.269976 570.661199 2160.223033 1.982639e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 56.356244 104.504244 216.668022 576.061630 2365.689463 2.791197e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 52.076097 97.705970 206.078272 564.751152 2474.187593 3.636029e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 48.029750 90.958893 194.506735 546.328991 2526.367289 4.532364e+04 NaN
2025-08-31 44.420187 84.799684 183.506298 526.645221 2555.941312 5.559960e+04 NaN
2025-09-07 44.035229 85.957463 192.341085 587.162684 3293.503349 1.414450e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 41.840542 82.612682 188.103705 593.416898 3609.415553 2.485349e+05 NaN
2025-09-21 40.338998 80.750524 187.792722 616.995327 4164.963483 6.105323e+05 NaN
2025-09-28 38.139184 76.958990 181.205744 609.913338 4390.463756 1.161560e+06 NaN
2025-10-05 37.935565 78.061791 189.534636 678.151240 5791.314273 2.087157e+07 NaN
2025-10-12 37.435711 78.358185 195.489037 739.374331 7458.333135 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 36.597888 77.685955 198.240889 786.108073 9227.597853 NaN NaN